EIA issues 2022, 2023 bioenergy forecasts

By Erin Voegele | January 11, 2022

The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that renewable electricity generation will continue to grow in 2022 and 2023, according to projections made in the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Jan. 11.

The electric power sector generated 27.8 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity from biomass last year, including 15.6 billion kWh from waste biomass and 12.2 billion kWh from wood biomass. Generation is expected to fall to 26.4 billion kWh this year, including 15.4 billion kWh from waste biomass and 10.9 billion kWh from wood biomass. The sector is expected to generate 26.6 billion kWh from biomass in 2023, including 15.5 billion kWh from waste biomass and 11.2 billion kWh from wood biomass.

Across other sectors, biomass generation was at 27.6 billion kWh last year, including 2.7 billion kWh from waste biomass and 24.9 billion kWh from wood biomass. Those levels of generation are expected to be maintained through 2022 and 2023.

The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.233 quadrillion Btu (quad) of waste biomass in 2022, increasing to 0.234 quad in 2023. The sector consumed 0.236 quad of waste biomass in 2020. The sector is also expected to consume 0.175 quad of wood biomass in 2022 and 0.179 quad of wood biomass in 2023, down from 0.196 quad in 2021.

The industrial sector is expected to consume 0.158 quad of waste biomass in both 2022 and 2023, down from 0.159 quad in 2021. The sector consumed 1.365 of wood biomass in 2021, with consumption expected to grow to 1.405 quad this year and 1.417 quad in 2023.

The commercial sector consumed 0.035 quad of waste biomass and 0.082 quad of wood biomass last year. Those levels of consumption are expected to be maintained through 2022 and 2023.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.455 quad of wood biomass this year and next year, flat with 2021.

Across all sectors, waste biomass consumption is expected to reach 0.426 quad in 2022 and 0.427 quad in 2023, compared to 0.431 quad in 2021. Wood biomass consumption was at 2.094 quad in 2021 and is expected to increase to 2.117 quad this year and 3.133 quad next year.

The electric power sector is expected to have 6,190 megawatts (MW) of biomass generating capacity in place by the end of this year, including 3,829 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,362 MW of wood biomass capacity. The sector’s biomass capacity is expected to expand to 6,209 MW by the end of 2023, including 3,848 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,362 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity was at 6,150 MW at the end of 2021, including 3,788 MW of waste biomass capacity and 2,362 MW of wood biomass capacity.

Across other sectors, biomass capacity was at 6,289 MW at the end of 2021, including 778 MW of waste biomass capacity and 5,510 MW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity is expected to fall to 6,281 MW by the end of 2022, with waste biomass capacity being maintained at 778 MW and wood biomass capacity falling to 5,503 MW. Biomass capacity is expected to increase to 6,293 MW by the end of 2023, with waste biomass capacity maintained at 778 MW and wood biomass capacity increasing to 5,515 MW.